At 2.3% annualized rate in April, the U.S. has made notable progress towards a rapid slowdown in inflation. This was a drop from March’s 2.4% rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released CPI data through September 2023. It indicates that consumer prices rose just 0.2% last month. It is the lowest inflation rate since more than four years. That contradicts early forecasts predicting inflation would not fall on a year-over-year basis.
During our most recent full fiscal year just ending, economists had predicted inflation rates to remain relatively consistent. They made their forecasts concrete by modeling the price effects of President Donald Trump’s infamous import tariffs. These tariffs were estimated to increase consumer prices by billions as their impact worked its way through the supply chain to retail. But as the most recent data indicates, the inflationary effect they feared hasn’t played out.
Gas prices were an important part of the overall inflation picture. Last month’s drop wasn’t nearly as drastic for them as it was during those early months of the year. Food prices fell by 0. Prices at grocery stores decreased even more, dropping 0.4% since March. Egg prices fell by a stunning 12.7% this month! This downward trend is an indication that the market has rebounded, as post avian flu outbreaks had spiked prices.
The Core CPI, which excludes especially volatile items like food and energy, increased by 0.2% over March. This measure remained fixed at an inflationary rate of 2.8% per year. It further illustrates that while overall inflation has eased, underlying price pressures are still very much active.