The newest monthly installment of the US Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment and unemployment roundup has produced some big news. Together, these changes bring about a transformative opportunity for the economy. That report, which came out on December 1, only has complete data through mid-October. It provides the complete findings for November, as the recent drawn-out government shutdown has delayed. That’s because in November, US employers added 64,000 jobs—much to the surprise of many economists. While this is certainly encouraging, it comes against the backdrop of an increasing unemployment rate. It ticked up to 4.6%, the highest level in four years, up from 4.4% in September.
The release of the report coincides with a 43-day government shutdown that ended in mid-November. In response, the Labor Department pushed back the release of the November jobs report by over a week. This delay marks the first comprehensive glimpse into the labor market since the shutdown, casting a shadow over the seemingly encouraging job growth.
The transportation and warehousing sector took some of the biggest losses in November, with that sector shedding 18,000 jobs. The health care sector continued its show of strength, adding 46,000 jobs. Nursing and residential care facilities were a huge part of it, accounting for 11,000 of those positions. One sector that crunched under the pressure was manufacturing, where the industry posted a loss of 5,000 jobs.
In October, job gains felt the blow of the strike. The labor market shrank by 105,000 nonfarm jobs, due in large part to the loss of 162,000 federal government jobs. A significant portion of these cuts are the result of efforts started under the last administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. Those initiatives weren’t set to go into effect until October, officially.
As the Federal Reserve begins to maneuver through a rapidly weakening labor market and the onset of recession, the question is what will their next move be. Right now, the market is only pricing one rate cut in 2026, but continued labor market developments may lead to a reassessment of this position by the Fed.
Economic analysts have differing views as to what the new data means for our economy. Seema Shah tells us that most market participants are going to look at today’s jobs data in disbelief. She further cautions that the figures “need to be looked at with a grain of salt.”
“For a data-dependent Fed, this morning’s data will only increase the internal debate.” – Chris Zaccarelli
Ms. Shah further emphasizes that the latest figures may “trigger some creeping concern within the Fed,” indicating that the central bank must carefully weigh its response to these emerging trends.
The labor market data we saw released today is one of the biggest, most critical gauges for policymakers and economists to judge the overall economic health by. Analysts are already hard at work interpreting the effects these changes will have. They caution against too much exuberance, particularly with signs of weakness starting to show in the job market.