Last month, US retail sales spiked big time, underscoring just how much consumers were trying to jump in front of tariffs that were about to hit. The Retail Sales report was only up 1.4% month-on-month, so spot on with market expectations. And consumer spending is skyrocketing at the moment. This growth is driven by the US dollar’s softer value as well as the decline of inflationary pressures in Britain, cultivating an optimistic economic outlook across the board.
Smart shoppers are using savvy purchasing strategies. In the auto industry, this trend resulted in a stunning 11%+ jump in volume last month. This jump contributed to an overall record 5.3% increase in automotive sales. Consumers scrambled to snatch up cars, fearing the effects of the impending tariffs that were sure to hit.
February’s control number was revised upward from 1% growth to 1.3%. This infographic maps core retail sales, stripping out of the picture more volatile categories. Surprisingly, in March, the control group fell flat. They managed a rather disappointing month-on-month growth of 0.4%, below expectations of 0.6%. This control group excludes non-consumer staples, like automobiles, building supplies, and gasoline—categories that can bias survey data from price fluctuations.
Automotive sales excluding the control group jumped 3.3% m/m. This spike was driven by significantly elevated demand for vehicles, possibly due to anticipation of tariffs. Month-on-month, gasoline sales fell by 2.5%. This drop is a result of dropping fuel prices, which are forcing an overall drop in consumer spending in this segment.
Dining out received a nice little lift with 1.8% higher than last month. This was likely due in part to warmer weather driving consumers to dine outdoors more frequently. This trend illustrates the extent to which seasonal factors have a major impact on performance across all retail trade sectors.
Consumers are just trying to get their feet under them, as the economy continues to change around them. Their eagerness to spend demonstrates market confidence, despite uncertainties sown by trade policies and rapidly changing currency values. The jump in retail sales is an indication of how consumers are behaving at the moment. It’s a valuable window into broader economic trends.