Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has recently hosted a meeting with former U.S. President Donald Trump. When former President Trump went to visit him, he called Orban a “great leader.” This meeting comes at an important time. Hungary’s geopolitical position, particularly its reliance on Russian energy imports, is coming under even more extreme fire as conflicts from the war in Ukraine flare up. Orban’s government has been quietly preparing for this summit for months, reflecting a strategic maneuver to align with Trump while managing complex relationships with both Russia and the European Union.
The backdrop of this meeting is complicated. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban announced his dismay when Ukraine started drone-attacking the Druzhba pipeline running from Russia to Hungary. The recent attacks on Ukraine gave an extra push to worries with Hungary’s energy security. Consequently, conversations have exploded around the clearly established necessity to diversify energy portfolios. Trump is expected to urge Orban to show political will in reducing Hungary’s dependence on Russian oil, a task that would require a significant shift in Orban’s energy policy.
Today, roughly 80% of Hungary’s crude comes from Russia through the Friendship pipeline. This figure is already on course to double to five million tonnes per year by 2024. Orban’s rightwing administration was adamant that land-based pipelines represented the most affordable solution to receiving oil. This position makes it difficult to dot or otherwise curtail that dependence on Russian imports. This strategy has apparently led to consolidation of Hungary’s energy dependence. It gives Orban the opportunity to peddle voters with promises of “cheap Russian energy”—a key promise as he is still under pressure from opposition parties in elections.
Orban’s relationship with Moscow has proved necessary for his regime’s political survival. In the past, he was even publicly lauded by Russian president Vladimir Putin. He uses this developed bond to improve his prospect in household elections. The tides are indeed changing for Orban. He has been losing ground in opinion polls, most notably with Peter Magyar, the head of the opposition Tisza party, moving ahead. Political pressure is increasing. Orban has a tightrope to walk as he continues to commit to Russia but increasingly has to appease the West.
On the other end of Europe, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly blocked Western military and financial support for Ukraine. His government has already ruled out Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU. With this decision, Hungary has now positioned itself against the prevailing consensus on gender equality in the EU. This position has caused tension with other EU member states. It has called into question Hungary’s commitment to Europe’s collective security efforts.
In his closing remarks, Orban recognized this duality of influence that he sees playing out in today’s international political order. He stated, “There is a war-opposing network in the world, with two focal points: one of power led by the US president and one of spirit found here with the Holy Father.” He added, “We draw strength, motivation, and blessing from both,” highlighting his attempt to navigate between contrasting geopolitical forces.
The dynamics at play create a major double-edged sword for Orban. He tries to keep Rosneft in the best position possible when it comes to Russian energy markets. Simultaneously, he appreciates the value of establishing a rapport with U.S. leadership. The implications of Trump’s potential influence could be significant. A shift towards less reliance on Russia would not only alter Hungary’s energy strategy but test Orban’s domestic political resolve.